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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 58

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 5-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.86 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP