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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 57

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 44

What Actually Happened

(:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-T.McSorley pass short middle to 17-A.Isabella to KC 47 for 10 yards (29-C.Lammons).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.65 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -0.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model