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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to LAC 9, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.79 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model