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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 28

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(1:40) (No Huddle) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LV 28 for no gain (98-M.Crosby, 97-A.Billings).

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.08 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model