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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 34

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(3:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow to LAC 26 for 8 yards (24-N.Adderley). FUMBLES (24-N.Adderley), and recovers at LAC 25.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.98 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model