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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 25

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 6-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.12 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model