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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 31

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 6-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.31 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model