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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 19

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to LV 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 21 for no gain (36-J.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 26, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP