Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 19 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 28 for -7 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], recovered by LV-74-K.Miller at LV 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

What Happened

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.49 EP
61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 65, worth -2.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model