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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 5

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 2-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP