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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 51

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(:40) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to LV 2, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.00 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 51, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP