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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 89

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to LAC 33, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.01 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 89, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.86 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP