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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 62

New York Giants 0 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 6-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to TEN 18, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-K.Philips.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.72 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model