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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 47

Tennessee Titans 13 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 38 yards to NYG 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 80-R.James. TEN-92-O.Adeniyi was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.01 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model