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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 82

Tennessee Titans 13 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 64 yards to NYG 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-R.James to NYG 36 for 18 yards (53-D.Cole).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.84 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 82, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 40, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP