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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 79

Tennessee Titans 20 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(14:36) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 66 yards to NYG 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-R.James to NYG 15 for 2 yards (30-T.Avery; 23-T.Cannon).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.97 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 79, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 36, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP