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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 55

New York Giants 13 – Tennessee Titans 20

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to TEN 12, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-K.Philips MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 13, RECOVERED by NYG-27-J.Pinnock at TEN 11.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.89 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model