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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 20 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 58 yards to NYG 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-R.James to NYG 27 for 22 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.87 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 63, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model