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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 17

New York Giants 13 – Tennessee Titans 20

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-D.Jones scrambles left end pushed ob at TEN 15 for 2 yards (96-D.Autry).

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.07 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model