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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 59

New York Giants 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to TEN 13, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-K.Philips to TEN 18 for 5 yards (44-N.McCloud).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.22 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 59, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model