Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 7 – New York Giants 0

(4:44) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to NYG 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-R.James pushed ob at NYG 40 for 17 yards (40-D.Hilliard).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.42 EP
53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 77, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model