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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 28

Tennessee Titans 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 14-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.65 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model