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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 6-P.Harvin punts 44 yards to CIN 22, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.97 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 24, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP