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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 35

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 77-H.Adeniji reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right guard pushed ob at PIT 4 for 31 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.62 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model