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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 8

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(:18) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.84 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model