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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 67

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to PIT 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 89-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP