4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 14 at the 84

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to CIN 44, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-T.Taylor to PIT 46 for 10 yards (48-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 84, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model