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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 85

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to PIT 35, Center-46-C.Harris. 89-G.Olszewski to CIN 45 for 20 yards (17-S.Morgan).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.82 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model