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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 2

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 1-J.Chase (20-C.Sutton). PENALTY on CIN-1-J.Chase, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +3.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.04 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 2, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model