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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 70

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to CIN 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 35 for 6 yards (13-M.Boykin, 83-Co.Heyward).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.76 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model