4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 3-R.Succop 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model