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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 63

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to TB 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-50-D.Harper.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.52 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model