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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 29

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(:19) 3-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +3.81 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model