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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 63

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.29 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 63, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model