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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to TB 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at TB 21 for 9 yards (57-L.Gifford).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.30 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model