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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 41

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

What Actually Happened

(13:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Houston (45-D.White).

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.32 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model