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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 50

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to TB 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.01 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model