Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 60

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 – Dallas Cowboys 3

(7:08) 5-J.Camarda punts 46 yards to DAL 14, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.29 EP
62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 60, worth -3.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model