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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 42

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

What Actually Happened

(4:57) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to TB 37 for 5 yards (35-J.Dean, 54-L.David).

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.87 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model