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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 32

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 19-B.Maher 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.78 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model