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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 5-J.Camarda punts 43 yards to DAL 16, Center-97-Z.Triner. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 19 for 3 yards (52-K.Britt).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +0.80 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 59, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model