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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 74

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

What Actually Happened

(2:13) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep middle to 85-N.Brown to DAL 43 for 17 yards (32-M.Edwards; 26-L.Ryan).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.78 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 74, worth -1.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model