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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 11

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 23

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 86-Z.Ertz [26-R.Ya-Sin].

The Three Options

GO +3.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.17 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model