4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 89

Las Vegas Raiders 23 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 6-A.Cole punts 61 yards to ARI 28, Center-47-T.Sieg. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 46 for 18 yards (47-T.Sieg).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.82 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 89, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 46, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model