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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 25

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 23

What Actually Happened

(8:41) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 2-M.Brown for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-21-A.Robertson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 2-M.Brown to LV 1 for 24 yards (21-A.Robertson). Penalty on LV-21-A.Robertson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.32 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model