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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 23 – Arizona Cardinals 15

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 6-A.Cole punts 34 yards to ARI 27, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-87-F.Moreau.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.66 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model