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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 3

Arizona Cardinals 15 – Las Vegas Raiders 23

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.98 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 3, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +2.99 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model