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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 14-A.Lee punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.21 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP