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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 14

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 2-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.35 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 14, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model