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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 8

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 7-Y.Koo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 8, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model